Was Andy Reid’s 4th Down Decision “Gutsy” or “Reckless”?
This is a classic case of judging a decision by its outcome if there ever was one. And in this case, I’m going to argue that it was the polar opposite of the famous decision that Pete Carroll made late in the 2014 Super Bowl where he was criticized by most for not running Marshawn Lynch and instead calling for a pass that was intercepted. This has been written about extensively and shown to have been a really good decision that just happened to have resulted in a bad outcome. For those interested, I’d recommend reading the first chapter of “Thinking in Bets” by Annie Duke for a very detailed explanation. Pete Carroll made a good decision and had a bad outcome. Andy Reid yesterday made a terrible decision but it worked out so nobody is going to criticize it. Except me! :-) So let’s look at the situation from yesterday. Up 22-17, the Chiefs have 4th and 1 from their own 49 where they have to snap the ball with 1:11 remaining (why they chose to snap the ball with 1:16 remaining is puzzli...